Academic Publications

Where possible I’ve provided links to open-access (OA) versions or shareable pdfs, but the vagaries of academic publishing agreements means that it may take some time for this to be possible. Email me (address on home page) if you’d like a full version not linked here. Also available via my Google Scholar and Researchgate profiles.

In Prep.

Armstrong McKay DI, JG Dyke, JA Dearing, CP Doncaster, & R Wang (in prep.). Network-based metrics of ecological memory and resilience in lake ecosystems.
Preprint (OA) – awaiting revisions before resubmission to a new journal

Submitted / In Review

Earth Commission Main Papers 1 & 2 (in revision/review)

Accepted / In Press

Nothing here right now


13) Wunderling N, R Winkelmann, J Rockström, S Loriani, DI Armstrong McKay, P Ritchie, B Sakschewski, J Donges (in revision). Global warming overshoots increase risk of triggering climate tipping points and cascades, Nature Climate Change.

Final Published Version (OA link); Preprint (OA); EGU2022

12) Rammelt CF, J Gupta, D Liverman, J Scholtens, D Ciobanu, JF Abrams, X Bai, L Gifford, C Gordon, M Hurlbert, CYA Inoue, L Jacobson, SJ Lade, TM Lenton, DI Armstrong McKay, N Nakicenovic, C Okereke, IM Otto, L Pereira, K Prodani, J Rockström, B Stewart-Koster, PH Verburg, C Zimm (2022). Impacts of Meeting Minimum Access on Critical Earth Systems amidst the Great Inequality, Nature Sustainability.

Final Published Version (OA); Preprint (OA)

11) Armstrong McKay DI, A Staal, JF Abrams, R Winkelmann, B Sakschewski, S Loriani, I Fetzer, SE Cornell, J Rockström, TM Lenton (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377 (6611). [doi: 10.1126/science.abn7950]

Final published version (free OA referral link); Postprint / accepted version (OA) [This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science 377 on 9/9/22, DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950.]; Preprint (OA); EGU 2022; AGU2021 poster (OA); EGU 2020 (OA)

Media: explainer

10) Lenton TM, JE Buxton, DI Armstrong McKay, JF Abrams, CA Boulton, K Lees, TWR Powell, N Boers, AM Cunliffe & V Dakos (2022). A resilience sensing system for the biosphere, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377: 20210383. (doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0383)

Final Published Version; Preprint (embargoed until publication)


9) Armstrong McKay DI, SC Cornell, K Richardson, & J Rockström (2021). Resolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models, Earth System Dynamics 12 (3), 797–818. (doi: 10.5194/esd-12-797-2021)

Final published version (OA), Discussion Paper/Preprint (OA)
Media: News article from SRC about this paper; blogpost


8) Avery RS, SL Greenwood, F Schenk, BM Morén, DI Armstrong McKay, L Brunnberg, & B Wohlfarth (2020). A 725-year integrated offshore terrestrial varve chronology for southeastern Sweden suggests rapid ice retreat ~15 ka BP, Boreas, 50 (2), 477-496. (doi: 10.1111/bor.12490)

Final published version (OA)


7) Dearing JA, K Zhang, W Cao, TP Dawson, DI Armstrong McKay, P Sillitoe, R Treves, & X Yang (2019). Who determines the trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental quality? An evolutionary perspective from rural eastern China, International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 17 (5), 347-366. (doi:10.1080/14735903.2019.1667141)

Final published version, OA-version available after embargo, 50 free copies available here or email for a copy; post-print (OA)

6) Armstrong McKay DI, JA Dearing, JG Dyke, GM Poppy, & LG Firbank (2019). To what extent has Sustainable Intensification in England been achieved? Science of the Total Environment 648, 1560-1569. (doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.207)

Final published version, post-print version (OA, pdf) & Supplementary Material (pdf)


5) Armstrong McKay DI & TM Lenton (2018). Reduced Carbon Cycle Resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Climates of the Past 14, 10, 1515-1527. (doi:10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018)

Final published version (OA); Discussion Paper/Preprint (OA)


4) Minshull TA, H Marín-Moreno, DI Armstrong McKay, & PA Wilson (2016). Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations, Geophysical Research Letters 43. (doi:10.1002/2016GL069676)

Final published version; post-print version (OA)

3) Armstrong McKay DI, T Tyrrell, & PA Wilson (2016). Global carbon cycle perturbation across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition, Paleoceanography 31 (2), 311–329. (doi:10.1002/2015PA002818)

Final published version (OA)


2) Tyrrell T, A Merico, & DI Armstrong McKay (2015). Severity of ocean acidification following the end Cretaceous asteroid impact, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (21), 6556-6561. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1418604112)

Final published version; post-print version (OA)


1) Armstrong McKay DI, T Tyrrell, PA Wilson, & GL Foster (2014). Estimating the impact of the cryptic degassing of Large Igneous Provinces: A mid-Miocene case-study, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 403, 254–262. (doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2014.06.040)

Final published version; post-print version (OA)