Where possible I’ve provided links to open-access (OA) versions or shareable pdfs, but the vagaries of academic publishing agreements means that it may take some time for this to be possible. Email me (address on home page) if you’d like a full version not linked here. Also available via my Google Scholar and Researchgate profiles.
Jump to: Journal Publications / Reports & Briefs / Thesis
Journal Publications
In Prep.
Armstrong McKay DI (in prep for Earth System Dynamics special issue on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene). Holocene stability: climate attractor, or lucky break?
EGU24 talk
Armstrong McKay DI, JG Dyke, JA Dearing, CP Doncaster, & R Wang (in prep.). Network-based metrics of ecological memory and resilience in lake ecosystems.
Preprint (OA) – awaiting revisions before resubmission to a new journal
A perspective on whether 1.5C can be considered a “physical climate limit” based on tipping point estimates
Submitted / In Review / In Revision
Winkelmann et al. (in review). The Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP): Assessing tipping point risks in the Earth system. Earth System Dynamics [preprint] https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1899/
Lade et al. (in review). A climate-biodiversity funnel that accelerates action towards global goals. https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/10727/
Rockström et al. (in review). Charting a transformational course toward a safe and just future: the Earth Commission’s contribution. https://pure.mpg.de/pubman/faces/ViewItemOverviewPage.jsp?itemId=item_3665400
Some other neat Earth Commission papers (without preprints)
Accepted / In Press
Nothing here right now
2025
25) Vörösmarty CJ, M Trujillo, P Casaccia, A Cak, KH Gardner, DI Greenfield, PM Groffman, A Reinmann, W Solecki, M Serreze, J Waldman, JM Bhatnagar, H Brumberg, A Carnaval, J Cullmann, SP Egendorf, ME Hauber, J Herlan, I Kavouras, CE Mason, P Marcotullio, M McCracken, DI Armstrong McKay, F Miszlivetz, T Muth, Y Nomura, CA Penick, J Rising, R Toledo-Crow, C Zarnoch (2025). A Climate BioStress Sentinel System: Identifying climate impacts from the genome to the urbanized biosphere. Cell Reports Sustainability, 100558 [doi: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100558]
Final published version (OA)
24) Loriani S, Y Aksenov, DI Armstrong McKay, G Bala, A Born, CM Chiessi, HA Dijkstra, JF Donges, S Drijfhout, MH England, AV Fedorov, LC Jackson, K Kornhuber, G Messori, FSR Pausata, S Rynders, J-B Sallée, B Sinha, SC Sherwood, D Swingedouw, & T Tharammal (2025). Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. Earth System Dynamics 16, 1611–1653. [doi: 10.5194/esd-16-1611-2025]
Final published version (OA); Preprint (OA)
23) Gupta J, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, X Bai, KL Ebi, P Fezzigna, G Gentile, L Gifford, S Hasan, L Jacobson, A Karg, S Lade, TM Lenton, D Liverman, A Mohamed, N Nakicenovic, D Obura, J Rockström, B Stewart-Koster, D van Vuuren & C Zimm (2025). Thresholds of significant harm at global level: The journey of the Earth Commission. Earth System Governance 25, 100263. [doi: 10.1016/j.esg.2025.100263]
Final published version (OA)
2024
22) Armstrong McKay DI (2024) Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook. Dialogues on Climate Change [doi: 10.1177/29768659241293272]
Final Published Version (OA)
21) Gupta J, X Bai, DM Liverman, J Rockström, D Qin, B Stewart-Koster, JC Rocha, L Jacobson, JF Abrams, LS Andersen, DI Armstrong McKay, et al. (2024). A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations. The Lancet Planetary Health [doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00042-1]
Final Published Version (OA)
20) Dakos V, CA Boulton, JE Buxton, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, S Bathiany, L Blaschke, N Boers, D Dylewsky, C López-Martínez, I Parry, P Ritchie, B van der Bolt, L van der Laan, E Weinans, & S Kéfi (2024). Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems. Earth System Dynamics 15, 1117–1135 [doi: 10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024]
Final Published Version (OA); Preprint (OA)
19) Hessen DO, T Andersen, DI Armstrong McKay, S Kosten, M Meerhoff, A Pickard, & B Spears (2024). Lake ecosystem tipping points and climate feedbacks. Earth System Dynamics 15, 653–669. [doi: 10.5194/esd-15-653-2024]
Final Published Version (OA); Preprint (OA)
18) Gupta J, Y Chen, DI Armstrong McKay, P Fezzigna, G Gentile, A Karg, L van Vliet, SJ Lade & L Jacobson (2024). Applying earth system justice to phase out fossil fuels: learning from the injustice of adopting 1.5°C over 1°C. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. [doi: 10.1007/s10784-024-09628-y]
Final published version (OA)
2023
17) Ritchie PDL, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, PM Cox, TM Lenton (2023). Tipping points: Both problem and solution. One Earth 6 (12), 1610-1613. [doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.016]
Final published version (OA)
16) Stewart-Koster B, S Bunn, P Green, C Ndehedehe, L Andersen, DI Armstrong McKay et al. (2023). Living within the safe and just Earth system boundaries for blue water. Nature Sustainability. [doi: 10.1038/s41893-023-01247-w]
Final published version (OA); Preprint (OA)
15) Abrams, JF, C Huntingford, MS Williamson, DI Armstrong McKay, CA Boulton, JE Buxton, B Sakschewski, S Loriani, C Zimm, R Winkelmann, & TM Lenton (2023). Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points, Earth’s Future 11, 11, e2022EF003250. [doi: 0.1029/2022EF003250]
Final Published Version (OA)
14) Rockström, J, J Gupta, D Qin, SJ Lade, JF Abrams, LS Andersen, DI Armstrong McKay et al. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature. [doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8]
Final Published Version (OA)
13) Wunderling N, R Winkelmann, J Rockström, S Loriani, DI Armstrong McKay, P Ritchie, B Sakschewski, J Donges (2023). Global warming overshoots increase risk of triggering climate tipping points and cascades, Nature Climate Change 13, 75–82. [doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9]
Final Published Version (OA link); Preprint (OA); EGU2022
2022
12) Rammelt CF, J Gupta, D Liverman, J Scholtens, D Ciobanu, JF Abrams, X Bai, L Gifford, C Gordon, M Hurlbert, CYA Inoue, L Jacobson, SJ Lade, TM Lenton, DI Armstrong McKay, N Nakicenovic, C Okereke, IM Otto, L Pereira, K Prodani, J Rockström, B Stewart-Koster, PH Verburg, C Zimm (2022). Impacts of Meeting Minimum Access on Critical Earth Systems amidst the Great Inequality, Nature Sustainability 6, 212–221. [doi: 10.1038/s41893-022-00995-5]
Final Published Version (OA); Preprint (OA)
11) Armstrong McKay DI, A Staal, JF Abrams, R Winkelmann, B Sakschewski, S Loriani, I Fetzer, SE Cornell, J Rockström, TM Lenton (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377 (6611). [doi: 10.1126/science.abn7950]
Final published version (now OA after 1 year), original free OA referral link [required notice: this is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science 377 on 9/9/22, DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950]; Postprint / accepted version (OA); Preprint (OA); EGU 2022; AGU2021 poster (OA); EGU 2020 (OA)
Media: climatetippingpoints.info explainer
10) Lenton TM, JE Buxton, DI Armstrong McKay, JF Abrams, CA Boulton, K Lees, TWR Powell, N Boers, AM Cunliffe & V Dakos (2022). A resilience sensing system for the biosphere, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 377: 20210383. [doi: 10.1098/rstb.2021.0383]
Final Published Version; Preprint (OA)
2021
9) Armstrong McKay DI, SC Cornell, K Richardson, & J Rockström (2021). Resolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models, Earth System Dynamics 12 (3), 797–818. [doi: 10.5194/esd-12-797-2021]
Final published version (OA), Discussion Paper/Preprint (OA)
Media: News article from SRC about this paper; blogpost
2020
8) Avery RS, SL Greenwood, F Schenk, BM Morén, , L Brunnberg, & B Wohlfarth (2020). A 725-year integrated offshore terrestrial varve chronology for southeastern Sweden suggests rapid ice retreat ~15 ka BP, Boreas, 50 (2), 477-496. [doi: 10.1111/bor.12490]
Final published version (OA)
2019
7) Who determines the trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental quality? An evolutionary perspective from rural eastern China, International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 17 (5), 347-366. [doi: 10.1080/14735903.2019.1667141]
Final published version, OA-version available after embargo, 50 free copies available here or email for a copy; post-print (OA)
6) Armstrong McKay DI, JA Dearing, JG Dyke, GM Poppy, & LG Firbank (2019). To what extent has Sustainable Intensification in England been achieved? Science of the Total Environment 648, 1560-1569. [doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.207]
Final published version, post-print version (OA, pdf) & Supplementary Material (pdf)
2018
5) Armstrong McKay DI & TM Lenton (2018). Reduced Carbon Cycle Resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Climates of the Past 14, 10, 1515-1527. [doi: 10.5194/cp-14-1515-2018]
Final published version (OA); Discussion Paper/Preprint (OA)
2016
4) Minshull TA, H Marín-Moreno, DI Armstrong McKay, & PA Wilson (2016). Mechanistic insights into a hydrate contribution to the Paleocene-Eocene carbon cycle perturbation from coupled thermohydraulic simulations, Geophysical Research Letters 43. [doi: 10.1002/2016GL069676]
Final published version (free access); post-print version (OA)
3) Armstrong McKay DI, T Tyrrell, & PA Wilson (2016). Global carbon cycle perturbation across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition, Paleoceanography 31 (2), 311–329. [doi: 10.1002/2015PA002818]
Final published version (OA)
2015
2) Tyrrell T, A Merico, & DI Armstrong McKay (2015). Severity of ocean acidification following the end Cretaceous asteroid impact, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (21), 6556-6561. [doi:10.1073/pnas.1418604112]
Final published version (free access); post-print version (OA)
2014
1) Armstrong McKay DI, T Tyrrell, PA Wilson, & GL Foster (2014). Estimating the impact of the cryptic degassing of Large Igneous Provinces: A mid-Miocene case-study, Earth and Planetary Science Letters 403, 254–262. [doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2014.06.040]
Final published version; post-print version (OA)
Reports & Briefs
European Commission: Joint Research Centre, ROMAN CUESTA, R.M., DENTENER, F., GALMARINI, S., MILKOREIT, M., ARMSTRONG MCKAY, D., DE GROEVE, T., DENNIS, D.P., JANSSENS-MAENHOUT, G., LORIANI, S. and RUIZ MORENO, A. (2025). Earth System Tipping Points are a threat to Europe. European Commission, Ispra, JRC140827.
Armstrong McKay DI (2024). How deforestation and climate change could push the Amazon to a tipping point, in [Galaz V & Meacham M (eds), 2024, Redirecting Flows – Navigating the Future of the Amazon. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2403.18521]
Global Tipping Points Report 2025
Lenton TM, M Milkoreit, S Willcock, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, JE Buxton, JF Donges, S Loriani, N Wunderling, F Alkemade, M Barrett, S Constantino, T Powell, SR Smith, CA Boulton, P Pinho, H Dijkstra, P Pearce-Kelly, RM Roman-Cuesta, & D Dennis, D. (eds) (2025). The Global Tipping Points Report 2025. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Lenton TM, M Milkoreit, S Willcock, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, et al. (eds) (2025). The Global Tipping Points Report: Summary in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2025, The Global Tipping Points Report 2025.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Abrams JF, DI Armstrong McKay, JE Buxton, S Loriani, & N Wunderling (eds) (2025). Section 2 in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2025, The Global Tipping Points Report 2025.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Armstrong McKay DI, JE Buxton, S Loriani, N Wunderling, et al. (2025). Chapter 2.2: Status of Earth system tipping points: what’s new? in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2025, The Global Tipping Points Report 2025.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Global Tipping Points Report 2023
Overall report
TM Lenton, DI Armstrong McKay, S Loriani, JF Abrams, SJ Lade, JF Donges, M Milkoreit, T Powell, SR Smith, C Zimm, JE Buxton, L Laybourn, A Ghadiali, JG Dyke (eds) (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Summary Report
Lenton TM, L Laybourn, DI Armstrong McKay, S Loriani, JF Abrams, SJ Lade, JF Donges, M Milkoreit, SR Smith, E Bailey, T Powell, L Fesenfeld, C Zimm, CA Boulton, JE Buxton, JG Dyke, A Ghadiali (2023), Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Summary Report in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Section 1
DI Armstrong McKay, S Loriani. (eds.) (2023). Section 1: Earth System Tipping Points in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Chapter 1.2
Winkelmann R, NJ Steinert, DI Armstrong McKay, et al. (2023). Chapter 1.2 – Cryosphere tipping points in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Chapter 1.3
Armstrong McKay DI, B Sakschewski, RM Roman-Cuesta, et al. (2023). Chapter 1.3 – Tipping points in the biosphere in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Chapter 1.4
Loriani S, Y Aksenov, H Dijkstra, et al. M England, A Fedorov, G Messori, F Pausata, JB Sallée, B Sinha, S Sherwood, T Tharammal, DI Armstrong McKay, G Bala, A Born, S Drifjhout, L Jackson, K Kornhuber, CM Chiessi, S Rynders, D Swingedouw (2023). Chapter 1.4 – Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Chapter 3.2
Milkoreit M, JF Abrams, DI Armstrong McKay, SM Constantino, G Futerman, TM Lenton, S Low, DP McLaren, M Rocha, V Spaiser, CE Wieners, Y Yamineva (2023). Chapter 3.2 – Prevention of Earth system tipping processes in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Chapter 3.3
Constantino SM, M Milkoreit, J Scheffran, V Spaiser, AM Basel, JT Bruun, R Safra de Campos, ACW Craparo, JG Dyke, C Gamper, W Guo, F Krampe, DI Armstrong McKay, DP McLaren, M Pill, F Schapendonk (2023). Chapter 3.3 – Tipping point impact governance in [TM Lenton et al. (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Thesis
Armstrong McKay DI (2015). Investigating the drivers of perturbations to the Cenozoic carbon-climate system, University of Southampton, Ocean & Earth Science, Doctoral Thesis, 185pp.
Dr. David Armstrong MᶜKay 